Now that the election is winding down, I feel both relief and sadness. I want it to end to prove I’m right. But like someone who has lost a loved one, I will be aimless and depressed.
October has been a rough. After ratcheting up my cocksuredness of an Obama landslide, it’s been a time of suitcases and Canada in case of a Romney win.
To say I’m not worried would be a lie. But hopefully if Obama wins, I can gloat and rub it in to all those Romney supporters who would do America such irreparable harm. I am partisan and have no love for conservatism.
Since I wrote this article on Nov. 2, 2012, I don’t really know what the results of the election will be. But I want to predict what states and what margin Obama will carry.
Looking at economic and emotional indicators in key swing states, I believe this is why Obama will win.
New Hampshire: Out of all the battlegrounds, to me, this one is the most important. If Romney wins New Hampshire, it will be a long night for Obama. The state has voted Democratic three out of the last four elections. If Obama wins, it will be time to get the champagne on ice.
Virginia: I think Obama will carry Virginia because it hasn’t been a good year for women there with personhood laws. In the Senate race, the Democrat looks strong. I don’t see Virginians passing over Obama at the top of the ballot to vote for Tim Kaine down ballot. Start the celebration party.
Ohio: Contrary to popular belief in the media, this will be a blowout. Look at the Senate race where Sherrod Brown will crush his opponent Josh Mandell. A governor with lower approval ratings than disapproval ratings and unemployment below the national average will seal the deal for Obama.
Nevada: Nevada will be overkill for Obama, but he should win there handily because of huge minority populations and high union presence.
Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin: Don’t believe the hype; these states are not in play. If Romney carries one of these states I will consider never writing again. Thats how cocksure I am in an Obama victory in these states.
Florida: Florida has too many shenanigans to call, even though the fundamentals look good.
My election day prediction is Obama 294 to Romney 244. How sure am I? 95 percent.
